"A wise and frugal government which shall restrain men
from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government."
(Thomas Jefferson)

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Cruz/Dewhurst in Runoff for TX Senate Nomination

Should be an interesting June and July in Texas leading up to the run-off elections.  Quite a few House seats for new districts are also headed for run-off elections.  Looks like that group that Eric Cantor gave to that were out to defeat incumbents, many of them in Texas didn't do so well at least on the Republican side as incumbents received over 70% of the vote in most cases and none are in run-offs -- were not even close to being in a run-off.  The new seats in the House will have runoffs as so many people ran for those seats -- counted ten candidates in several of them.  All in all, it was a good night for House incumbent conservatives in TX and not a good night for the establishment types or the Paul people.  Common sense reigns in Texas.

Romney didn't reach the 70% mark for votes in Texas and that was with Rick Perry NOT on the ballot.  Cannot believe Romney is the only man left standing and he cannot get over 70% in Texas but he has already declared Texas is going for him and no need to campaign there.  Maybe he is not campaigning there as his numbers would go down.  For those that don't know, Romney spent election night in Las Vegas with Donald Trump.  Sitting here shaking head but also chuckling.  What are the far right who abhor gambling going to say about that?

My prediction is that Ted Cruz will continue to gain on Dewhurst and that the group of people supporting the Dallas Mayor most likely will not go out and vote in big numbers at the end of July.  I cannot believe that 3% of Texans even voted for the former ESPN analyst Craig James who helped get Mike Leach fired as the football coach of Texas Tech.  Bet he didn't do well in Lubbock.  Would like the James votes would go to Cruz.  In the end,  I would bet that Cruz continues to gain and takes the Special Election.

IMHO, I don't think Governor Perry's endorsement will mean much mostly because voters know Dewhurst is the Lt Governor so it would be normal for Perry to endorse Dewhurst.  Not endorsing him would not be smart especially since he has 2 1/2 years left as Governor.

From now until July 31st, expect the Texas airwaves to be filled with negative ads filled with innuendoes and lies.  IOTW Typical Texas election.  
Cruz Narrowed Gap with Dewhurst in Final Days
Enthusiasm is on Cruz's side.
8:51 AM, May 30, 2012 • By MICHAEL WARREN 
In yesterday’s U.S. Senate Republican primary in Texas, lieutenant governor David Dewhurst won 45 percent of the vote to Ted Cruz’s 34 percent and Tom Leppert’s 13 percent. Dewhurst fell just a few points shy of the 50 percent, resulting in a runoff with Cruz. Yet Dewhurt's 11 percentage point victory would suggest he has the advantage of winning that runoff for the GOP nomination on July 31. 
But the numbers might be telling a different story. Slightly fewer than half of those who voted in the primary voted early, some over two weeks before the election. Of those early voters, Dewhurst did much better than he did with voters overall, beating Cruz by 18 points (48 percent to 30 percent), or roughly 120,000 votes. But on election day, Cruz closed that gap considerably. Dewhurst won about 41 percent of the vote to Cruz’s 38 percent—a margin of 4 points and only 24,000 votes. 
That narrower gap on election day, after voters had more of a chance to get to know the candidates, suggests that the momentum had shifted toward Cruz. With an influx of funds to keep TV and radio ads on the air and an aggressive push to get out the vote in July, Cruz could have a shot at overcoming Dewhurst and winning the nomination.
There are other factors to be sure. Former Dallas mayor Tom Leppert, who pulled 13 percent in the race, did not tell reporters if he would endorse Dewhurst or Cruz. But as the most liberal of the GOP candidates, Leppert might see his supporters turn to the more moderate Dewhurst than the more conservative Cruz—or they might just not vote at all in the runoff. Dewhurst’s big swath of early voters may be just as energized to vote in July as they were to vote in May. Cruz could stumble, Dewhurst could reach deeper into his pockets to pay for more ads, or Texas Republicans could decide to side with their governor, Rick Perry, and go with his endorsed candidate, Dewhurst. 
But as one PPP poll showed in the final days before the election, 49 percent of those supporting Cruz said they were “very excited” about voting for him; only 27 percent of Dewhurst supporters said the same thing. In a runoff election, intensity of support could mean everything. 
Source:  Weekly Standard

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