It Ain't Over by William Kristol

There are numerous articles about the Republican Presidential Primary after Super Tuesday and as many ideas about what the outcome meant but this article by Bill Kristol is #1 for being short and to the point plus making me chuckle.  The first paragraph of his article cracked me up knowing that it has a lot of truth in that one paragraph.  Best first paragraph I have read for a long time.  In fact, the article is one of the best describing how the inside the beltway establishment Republicans are reacting.

It Ain't Over

1:21 AM, Mar 7, 2012 • By WILLIAM KRISTOL

Virginia

Out here, in the dark quiet of the winter suburban night, it's startling to hear the harsh sounds piercing through the cold air from the direction of Washington, D.C. It takes a while to recognize the sound as the gnashing of thousands of D.C. GOP power brokers' teeth. It was supposed to be over tonight!!! What the hell are the voters doing?!?

What they're doing is, on the one hand, casting more votes for Mitt Romney than for anyone else. But what they're also doing, on the other hand, is denying Romney enough votes to win decisively and end the race. 

So it's not over.  

And here's why D.C. GOP teeth are gnashing so fiercely and loudly: It won't be over for a while. 

Mitt Romney of course remains the clear favorite. But the schedule over the next few weeks does him few favors. There are 14 primaries and caucuses in the next month, including Kansas on March 10, Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi on March 13, Missouri on March 17, Illinois on March 20, Louisiana on March 24, and Maryland and Wisconsin on April 3. Rick Santorum will probably hold his own—maybe more than hold his own—against Romney in these contests. (Furthermore, if Santorum can win Alabama and Mississippi next week, Gingrich may either get out or become fairly irrelevant, which would presumably help Santorum.) 

Then there are three weeks off in April, so the get-the-race-over-crowd will have lots of free time to stew and gnash until the Northeast weighs in big on April 24, with Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Which, however, probably won't provide an unambiguous verdict either. So then we'll be on to the merry month of May. 

Fun!

Source:  Weekly Standard

The writers at the Weekly Standard this week have been on their game.  Used to consider them the voice of the establishment Republicans but would say they have lost that title for a lot of us.  Have enjoyed reading their articles over the years but if someone would have asked me where I would put them on the political specturm, I would have said inside the beltway which leans right.  The articles during this primary could have been written out here in Middle America.  I have to admit I was wrong.  Over this campaign I have probably enjoyed the Weekly Standard articles as much as any publication as they have tapped into how conservatives are feeling about the candidates especially Romney.

The other article I enjoyed from the Weekly Standard today shows why so many of us don't like Romney or his campaign.  One third of delegates have been awarded and the Romney camp declares mathematical inevitability.  Do Mormons have a different math they go by then the rest of us?  What arrogant attitude to take when it is not true but that sums up the Romney campaign where facts and truth are foreign to Romney and his campaign.

Putting out emails with such arrogance does not endear Mitt Romney or any of his campaign staff to conservatives who frankly have had with Romney and his lies and mistruths.  No better example that in 2009 in writing in an editorial and in a video when he tells Obama he needs to look at RomneyCare for individual mandates when he denied that ObamaCare was based on RomneyCare.  This has happened over and over again in this race where Romney has said one thing for years and now we are to believe what he says now as what he has meant all these years.

How dumb does he think conservatives are to swallow his flip flops?  Pretty dumb it seems because Romney and his campaign don't understand how to treat people to get them on their side but they are experts in alienating conservatives.  Now they are out with this nonsense that it is mathematical inevitable that he will be the nominee when it is not true.  How about what happens when the Convention forces Florida to proportion like the rest of us who voted before 1 April?

Romney's Curious Claim of Mathematical Inevitability
12:20 PM, Mar 8, 2012 • By JEFFREY H. ANDERSON 

Mitt Romney’s campaign sent out a memo yesterday saying, “As the other candidates attempt to ignore the basic principles of math, the only person’s odds of winning they are increasing are Barack Obama’s.” The memo asserts that “the delegate math just doesn’t add up for anyone but Mitt.” Well, let’s take a look at that math. 

According to RealClearPolitics, fewer than a third of all GOP delegates have been awarded to date, leaving more than two-thirds still to be won. So, delegate-wise, this contest is still early in the second quarter — or, if you prefer, in the bottom of the third inning. Has Romney run up such overwhelming tallies in the early part of the game that it’s time to invoke the mercy rule? 

Hardly. 

First, this is a contest to win the Republican presidential nomination and take on President Obama in perhaps the most important election since the Civil War. There is no mercy rule. 

Second, across the 22 GOP primaries and caucuses to date, Romney has won 40 percent of the popular vote. (That’s not counting the non-binding Missouri primary, in which Romney lost to Rick Santorum by 30 points.) That’s netted him 55 percent of the 733 delegates awarded to date (including the 2 that were awarded to Jon Huntsman). If Romney keeps winning at this clip, he’ll clear the necessary 1,144 delegates that a candidate needs to win the GOP nomination. But if he wins only 47 percent of the delegates from here on out — not that much of a decline from 55 percent — he won’t hit 1,144. 

There’s no guarantee that Romney will continue to win at the same rate. Despite the fact that he won a whopping 72 percent of the votes in his home state of Massachusetts, he still managed to win only 38 percent of the overall popular vote on Super Tuesday. In nearly half of the Super Tuesday states (four of ten), his percentage of the vote was in the 20s. He still won 55 percent of the delegates on the day, but his popular vote tallies might have been somewhat worrisome for his campaign. Perhaps that’s why they don’t seem too eager to play the game for four quarters. 

As for the claim that “the delegate math just doesn’t add up for the other candidates,” it’s a bit beside the point. If Romney fails to reach 1,144 delegates and heads into a contested convention, it’s doubtful that he’ll take much solace in knowing that none of the other candidates hit 1,144 either. Nonetheless, Santorum could plausibly still hit that mark. To do so, he’d simply need to do a bit better in the contests still to come (which will award the remaining two-thirds of delegates) than Romney has done in the contests to date (which have awarded the first third of delegates). While Romney has won 55 percent of the delegates so far, Santorum would have to win 63 percent of the delegates the rest of the way (to reach 1,144). He presumably won't do that. But if you go through the remaining states, assume Santorum improves a few points and starts to beat Romney quite often, then Santorum could work himself into a delegate tie with, or even a lead over, Romney, by the end of the contest. 

Excerpt:  Read More at Weekly Standard