"A wise and frugal government which shall restrain men
from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government."
(Thomas Jefferson)

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Super Tuesday States

Looking forward to 6 March 2012 which will be the end of ads for this election cycle here.  Chances of Oklahoma getting ads in the general except on nationwide cable stations is slim to none.  In 2004 after Kerry came in third, he announced that he would not be putting an office in Oklahoma.  In 2008 after Obama made two trips to Oklahoma, and they had to get some Republicans to show up to have enough people, the Democrats decided not to waste time with Oklahoma.  Smart move as even Democrat counties went for McCain in 2008 so we were a total red state on the map.  
Expect Oklahoma to go for Santorum on Tuesday with Newt Gingrich #2 in the popular vote but expect Santorum to pick up most  if not all of our delegates as ours are proportioned.  Oklahoma follows the rules unlike Florida but then we didn't have hanging chads like Florida had in 2000 either.  Our large cities are not moderate and certainly not liberal like the cities Romney has been picking up in the states.  Romney picked up Denver but lost the state.  In fact Romney is picking up the same areas that Obama picked up in 2008 which speaks volumes.
My picks for Super Tuesday would be definite for Santorum in Oklahoma and Tennessee, Newt in Georgia, and Romney in Massachusetts, Vermont, and Idaho which is conservative but has a heavy Mormon populartion.   Don't have a clue about AK.  In Virginia expect Romney to beat Paul since the state left most candidates off the ballot who couldn't meet their unconstitutional rules.  It will be a hollow victory and in the end is costing the VA Governor to lose respect from around the Country.  Not good if rumors are true that he wants to be Romney's VP.
Ohio is the one which is hardest to predict.  If the state goes like it usually does for Republicans, Santorum will win with Gingrich/Romney fighting for second as rural areas usually come out in big numbers for Republican primaries so I don't see Romney winning Ohio.  
Voters are finally understanding because you win the popular vote in the primary doesn't mean you win the delegate count because all states voting prior to 1 April have to proportion delegates according to RNC rules which don't seem to apply to Romney in Florida according to the RNC Chair.  Look for that to be challenged at the Convention by not only Newt's camp but by the honest brokers of the GOP.  
While they are at it when they protest, maybe they can figure a way to send the Chair and the people responsible for this debacle of a primary to the unemployment line as they are responsible for far too many debates run by liberal moderators and not having the same rules for everyone.   The Chair has stayed silent about the 'scorched policy' of Romney attacking fellow candidates instead of telling people and Super PACs to knock it off.  Very poor job of being a leader but then the rest of us are not from Wisconsin which seems to be all he is interested in with the recall of the Governor.  
The vast majority of people I have talked to recently are firmly in the None of the Above camp and their votes are based on who is the best of a bad choice.  Hard to find anyone who thinks this group can beat Obama in November.  Everyplace I go or talk to people on line or on the phone, it is about please let us have a brokered convention -- don't let anyone win it outright in the primaries.  Romney would be trailing the pack IMHO if not for over $50M he and his Super PAC have spent to tear down other Republicans.  Conservatives will never be convinced he is a conservative no matter what he says as the facts say otherwise. 
Thanks to the National Journal for putting this map up to let everyone know who is voting on Super Tuesday and how many delegates are at stake.  
The important thing on March 6 in these states is for Republican voters to get out to the polls to make their voices heard.  Oklahoma is a closed primary so when you hear our votes, it is the votes of Republicans.
Super Tuesday States -- MAP

March 1, 2012 | 1:41 p.m.

Above is a map of states that are holding their nominating contests on March 6, Super Tuesday. A total of 419 delegates are up for grabs as 10 states hold their primaries or caucuses.

No comments: