"A wise and frugal government which shall restrain men
from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government."
(Thomas Jefferson)

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Today is Super Tuesday! Can One of the Four Democrats in the Oklahoma Primary Beat Obama?

Thought this day would never get here after the last few weeks of campaign ads on sports talk radio and on ESPN.  One thing I cannot tolerate is negative ads hour after hour on newsbreaks which is what was been happening as the Romney Super PAC seems to think putting negative ads on sports talk radio is going to get him votes.  Just the opposite.  Wednesday will be political ad free day here on my radio and don't expect any to return to Oklahoma in the general for President.  This is one Red State that Obama most likely will not be campaigning.  Understatement!

Newt decided to weigh in with some negative ads against Romney on my TV and radio.  The one on TV is an odd ad and not something I am used to here in OK where most of our ads are really good.  I don't know where they got the people for the ad but they might have wanted to look a little harder because it stereotyped Oklahomans.

Learned recently that the Libertarians have qualified for ballot access for the Presidential election this year:

Oklahoma State Capitol 
NORMAN, OKLAHOMA – February 29, 2012 – Over 51,000 voters in Oklahoma have signed petitions to put the Libertarian Party candidates for president and vice president on the ballot in November. Tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., the Oklahoma Libertarian Party (OKLP) and RJ Harris, candidate for the LP presidential nomination and Oklahoma resident, will be visiting the Oklahoma State Capitol Room B-6 to turn in the signatures. This will be the first time the OKLP has been on the ballot since 2000. This comes on the heels of Americans Elect turning in their signature requirements just 48 hours ago to place their candidate on the ballot in November as well. It is clear that the citizens of Oklahoma want another option for president other than one of the two major parties. 
Excerpt:  Read More at RJ Harris 2012
That is a lot of signatures to gain ballot access which shows that Oklahomans are not too happy with their choices.   I still haven't figured out the media saying the Republican race is basically over when all those caucuses didn't count for delegates.  Can someone explain to me why we even have caucus and why they vote in front of primary states?  Makes no sense and doesn't give a true indication of who the people want for the nominee.  Tomorrow it is a wrap for the Republican Primary in Oklahoma for President for which I am grateful we are an early voting state.

One the Democrat primary ballot for President there are five people running including Obama:

Could someone besides Barack Obama win Oklahoma's March 6 Democratic presidential primary, or at least get enough votes to embarrass the president and the state party?  
By RANDY KREHBIEL World Staff Writer

Probably not, but if it is going to happen any place, Oklahoma seems a likely spot.
To begin with, a good many Oklahomans - including Oklahoma Democrats - appear to be unaware there even is a Democratic presidential primary in the state this year, so turnout is likely to be low. 
Second, Obama's approval ratings are low, even among Democrats. Republican candidates have had a field day linking their Democratic opponents to the president. 
There are, in fact, four candidates besides Obama on the Democratic presidential primary ballot in Oklahoma, including one who has bought time for about 100 eye-catching (if gruesome) television spots and another who, despite no money and virtually no campaigning, won the 2010 Democratic U.S. Senate primary (and received 265,000 votes in the general election) and got 40 percent in the 2008 Senate primary against a relatively well-funded opponent. 
"Oklahoma is the perfect state to do this," said Randall Terry, the anti-abortion candidate who announced last week his intention to use the state as a springboard to becoming a player in East Coast swing states. "If I get double digits here, it will be a massive embarrassment to Obama."
Jim Rogers, the 76-year-old Midwest City man whose primary campaign mode is walking around in a sweatshirt with his name on it, has proved in the past two election cycles that anti-establishment - or at least non-establishment - candidates can do well in statewide Oklahoma Democratic primaries. 
But what does that mean for him, Terry and the other "non-Obama" candidates, Bob Ely and Darcy Richardson? 
University of Oklahoma political science professor Keith Gaddie said proportional distribution of delegates means someone other than Obama "might be able to win a delegate," but that on the whole it's difficult even for someone like Terry, who can afford television ads and has a niche following, to get very far. 
"When these guys set out to do this, they never have as much momentum or make as much of an impact as they expect," Gaddie said. 
Issue candidates such as Terry, Gaddie said, "have always been with us. Their thinking is absolutely rational, in terms of logic, but the problem is that ... there are just too many people along the way who can stop them." 
Gaddie said Terry is targeting voters who wouldn't vote for Obama anyway. 
"The problem with (Terry) is that he's trying to capture anger that's already been captured."
There's also the question of just how large a percentage would be necessary to cause the president's campaign discomfort or create a ripple nationally. 
Although Obama is not popular in Oklahoma, he may not be that much more unpopular than other recent Democratic presidential candidates. His 2008 share of the vote - 34 percent - was identical to John Kerry's in 2004 and Bill Clinton's in 1992 and only slightly less than Al Gore's 38 percent in 2000. 
In 1996, as an unpopular Democratic incumbent against token opponents, Clinton lost 24 percent of the state primary vote. Lyndon LaRouche, on parole from federal prison at the time, received 13 percent. Elvena Lloyd-Duffie, a Chicago woman who said God told her to spend a $120,000 disability settlement on a presidential campaign, got 11 percent. 
Losing nearly a quarter of the Oklahoma primary vote did not seem to hinder Clinton's broader campaign or do much for LaRouche or Lloyd-Duffie. 
Pollster Bill Shapard said it's possible one or more of the alternatives to Obama might win a substantial portion of the March 6 vote, but he doubts it will help any of them, including Terry, down the road. 
"I don't think he'll have much impact on the rest of the year," said Shapard. 
Source:  Tulsa World

Read the article from the Tulsa World earlier and saved it for today -- this could be an interesting primary after all.  It would be so funny if Obama had real competition here in Oklahoma tomorrow.  He is not the most popular person in Oklahoma.  Far from it from this total Red State.

My bet is on Rick Santorum to take the Republican delegates here tomorrow but would love to see a cliff hangar with the Democrats.  That would be too funny.

Weather will be nice tomorrow so people have no excuse not to vote although would bet if you asked Democrats probably 75% or more don't even know they have a primary tomorrow.

Wonder if CNN will declare OK for a candidate at 8:01 p.m., est which they usually do before any ballots are even counted.  If they don't, that will be a switch.  Should make for an interesting evening tomorrow night especially if Oklahoma goes for someone other than Obama.  Can you imagine what the mainstream media would do?  Makes me chuckle thinking about it!

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