Lessons from the 2009 election results

Yesterday was a perfect example of what it was like to witness elections without massive voter fraud. Governor-elect Christie in New Jersey dispatching 700 lawyers across the State we believe made a difference. To witness a Law and Order candidate be elected Governor of New Jersey should send a clear message across the Country that we can have fair elections but we have to plan and make sure we have the people on the ground that can keep fraud at bay.

In Virginia the turn around was huge from 2008 until a year later when Governor-Elect McDonnell won with 59% of the vote in a state that shocked everyone when it went Blue in 2008. A year later Independents flocked to the three top of the ticket Republicans.

Most ridiculous thing to come out of this whole election was the White House trying to spin this meant nothing to Obama. Excuse us but he made five trips into NJ as last as Sunday and begged the NJ voters to return Corzine to help him with his agenda including Obamacare. That doesn't even include the campaign people he dispatched to NJ to help Corzine. Who was responsible for the NJ Dems doing a robocall for the Daggit Independent candidate? Our guess is Obama's people convinced the NJ Dem Party to pay for the robocall.

If I was a Blue Dog, I would be thinking my days could be numbered especially with the GOP finding that dispatching lawyers throughout a state makes the job much harder to fraud elections.

Guess you could say that the Democrat Media spin of the Republican Party is dead after 2008 was a bit premature and wishful thinking.

Lessons from the 2009 election results
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
11/04/09 3:08 AM EST


President Barack Obama and New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine embrace during a campaign rally for the incumbent at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J., Sunday, Nov. 1, 2009. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

My Wednesday Examiner column, written as the 2009 election returns were coming in, stands up pretty well. But let me add some observations written as the course of the elections became clearer.

First, in the governor elections in Virginia and New Jersey, the Democratic candidate ran far behind Barack Obama’s percentages in 2008 and the Republican candidates ran ahead of George W. Bush’s percentages in 2004. The numbers are pretty daunting. In Virginia Creigh Deeds won 41% of the votes, way behind Barack Obama’s 53% in 2008. And in New Jersey Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine won 45% of the votes, way behind Obama’s 57% in 2008.

In contrast, the Republican candidates won higher percentages than Bush won in the recent high-water mark of the Republican party in 2004. Republican Bob McDonnell won 59% in Virginia, well ahead of Bush’s 54%. And Republican Chris Christie won 49%, ahead of Bush’s 46%. On the basis of these numbers you could say—in races where the issues were reasonably congruent though not identical to national issues—that Democrats were performing far below their recent optimal levels and Republicans were performing well above them.

Second, and here I want to credit for this observations longtime Democratic pollster and political analyst Pat Caddell, affluent suburban voters moved sharply toward Republicans in 2009.

Bergen County, New Jersey, a 56%-42% Corzine constituency in 2005, came within a point or two of voting for Christie, and in Virginia McDonnell carried 51%-49% Fairfax County—Republican for years but recently in cultural issues and with an increasing immigrant population Democratic (60%-39% Obama in 2008). I

n addition, Westchester County, New York, voted 58%-42% for a Republican county execctive after voting almost exactly the opposite way, in a race involving the same two candidates, four years before . The Philadelphia suburban counties, increasingly Democratic in 1996, 2000, 2004 and 2008, voted Republican in a partisan race for the Supreme Court in 2009.

From the 1996 election up through and including 2008., affluent counties in the East, Midwest and West have trended Democratic, largely through distaste for the religious and cultural conservatives whom voters there have seen (not without reason) as dominant in the Republican party. Now, with the specter of higher tax rates and a vastly expanded public sector, they may be—possibly—headed in the other direction. An interesting trend to watch.

Excerpt: See Examiner for Full Article