Santorum Leads Romney in Latest Public Policy Polling 38% to 23%

Interesting day with polling numbers which we are usually not inclined to consider but the numbers from Public Policy Polling (PPP) is a three day average that also seems reflected in other polling that uses rolling averages.  It sure has turned the Republican Primary upside down and shows voters that Romney is not inevitable like the establishment types want us to believe.  Looks like conservatives are finally speaking up at the voting booth and not buying into the Romney hype.  How many voters in Florida that cast their ballots early wish they had them back to vote for Santorum or Paul after the Florida primary turned nasty especially on the Romney side with unrelenting ads attacking Newt Gingrich.

Always will think Newt made  mistake going back at Romney with the same kind of venom.  Newt also complained too much about the media and the debate where they asked the crowd to stay silent which came off as whining and people asking if Newt was saying he cannot debate unless he has the crowd on his side.  There are times that Newt would be better off to say nothing.  You can go after another candidate and get your point across without all the venom we saw out of Romney in Florida and expect to see out of him against Santorum now.

Today we are learning that all that venom has taken its toll in polling and from the voters who were not big Romney supporters to begin with as most conservatives would have preferred to never see Romney on the ballot again after 2008.  Why he ran in 2012 is beyond me when most conservatives couldn't stand him in 2008 but guess he figured with getting the establishment/inside the beltway types on his side he had it made.  It also makes it ludicrous when he talks about he is not an inside the beltway type when he is bought and paid for by Wall Street and "K" Street.  Maybe Romney has not served in DC but he has ties all over DC and with the financial sector in NYC which makes you an insider.

What led me to Public Policy Polling was this comment from Allahpundit at Hot Air:

From Hot Air:

Update: I hit “publish” and then immediately saw the latest tweets from PPP. Not only does Santorum have a “healthy” lead in their new national poll, apparently he’s also leading in Michigan, home to former Gov. George Romney and his son Mitt. Quote: “This may be the biggest surge yet”.

After reading that last comment on his post, decided to take a look at PPP website to see what were the latest numbers released this morning which shows Romney tanking and also learning that in the first night of polling in Michigan, PPP twittered that Santorum was leading.  If Santorum comes close in MI or even the fact he is leading there now should be a real blow to Romney.  Republicans are seeing through his pretense of being conservative.

Here are the details on the national polling after Santorum won MO, MN, and CO:

February 11, 2012Santorum surges into the lead

Riding a wave of momentum from his trio of victories on Tuesday Rick Santorum has opened up a wide lead in PPP's newest national poll. He's at 38% to 23% for Mitt Romney, 17% for Newt Gingrich, and 13% for Ron Paul. 

Part of the reason for Santorum's surge is his own high level of popularity. 64% of voters see him favorably to only 22% with a negative one. But the other, and maybe more important, reason is that Republicans are significantly souring on both Romney and Gingrich. Romney's favorability is barely above water at 44/43, representing a 23 point net decline from our December national poll when he was +24 (55/31). Gingrich has fallen even further. A 44% plurality of GOP voters now hold a negative opinion of him to only 42% with a positive one. That's a 34 point drop from 2 months ago when he was at +32 (60/28). 

Santorum is now completely dominating with several key segments of the electorate, especially the most right leaning parts of the party. With those describing themselves as 'very conservative,' he's now winning a majority of voters at 53% to 20% for Gingrich and 15% for Romney. Santorum gets a majority with Tea Party voters as well at 51% to 24% for Gingrich and 12% for Romney. And with Evangelicals he falls just short of a majority with 45% to 21% for Gingrich and 18% for Romney. 

Continue reading "Santorum surges into the lead" »

The part I found most interesting from the Hot Air article other than the polling was Romney meeting with conservative leaders and seemingly not backing down on his ruthless attacks he will now aim at Santorum like he did Gingrich in Florida.  Does he think the Republican voters are going to reward such a nasty campaigner with votes?  Saying he cannot control his Super PAC is a joke when talking to political pros.  All he has to do is tell his Super PAC to knock it off and they will comply and if they don't, then he gets surrogates to take them down.   IMHO Romney will make a big mistake in attacking Santorum with the same gutter politics he used on Newt.  His Corporate vulture stripes are starting to show in this campaign as he is operating this campaign like it is a hostile takeover and it is not going over well.

More from Hot Air:

As for Mitt, there’s only one thing to do when you’re a “severe conservative” being threatened by an opponent’s surge: Nuke him with negative ads, of course. But will that fly this time? Byron York’s hearing pushback at CPAC:

Mitt Romney met privately with a group of conservative activists and opinion leaders Thursday, on the eve of his speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington. In a wide-ranging discussion, a number of participants urged Romney to refrain from attacking rival Rick Santorum with the scorched-earth intensity that he directed at Newt Gingrich… 

“He said Rick has to be held up to the same scrutiny as everyone else,” says one meeting participant. (This account is based on conversations with three people who were in the room.) Romney specifically mentioned hitting Santorum on his record on earmarks and other federal spending. 

It’s not clear whether Romney’s answer satisfied the group. In general, a number of participants don’t want to see a repeat of the Romney-Gingrich attacks because a) they feel Santorum doesn’t deserve it, and b) they believe the negativity has been bad for Republicans overall. Romney told the group that the attacks on Gingrich were not his doing but rather the work of the super PAC that works on Romney’s behalf but not under his control.

I can’t believe he tried the “I have no control over my Super PAC” crap on a bunch of savvy political insiders. Good lord. The quandary for Mitt here is that there is a decent line of attack available against Santorum but, for understandable reasons, he almost certainly can’t use it. Namely, he could argue that Santorum’s as unelectable as Gingrich because once the media starts zeroing in on his positions on social issues, that’ll become the focus of campaign coverage instead of the economy and suddenly independents will start to drift away. 

He’s got three problems with that argument, though. 

• One: Unlike Gingrich, Santorum’s favorable numbers are as good as Romney’s right now, and in some polls better. Doesn’t mean they’ll stay that way but it’s hard to point fingers when your own numbers are worse.  

• Two: Obviously, Romney’s conservative credentials are already so suspect that he can’t afford to hit Santorum from the left on social issues. And the more Planned Parenthood and O’s contraception mandate are in the news, the truer that is. 

• Three: Santorum could counter that, in light of the solid jobs numbers in the last unemployment report, it’s actually Romney who’s on shaky ground in the general. If the economy starts to heat up, Romney’s left with no argument for his candidacy but Santorum will still have cultural issues to fight on. Read Matthew Continetti’s latest post for an elaboration on that point. If all you’ve got is “electability” and the chance of a poor economy persisting into the fall, you don’t have much. And even if the bad economy does persist, any GOP nominee will benefit, not just Romney. 

For what it’s worth, the head of the group that runs CPAC told the Daily Mail today that he can see Jeb Bush emerging as a consensus choice at the convention if Super Tuesday ends up being split three ways. Remember, Ohio’s the big one.  (snip) 

Excerpt:  Read More at Hot Air

Are establishment members now turning their eyes toward Jeb as a consensus candidate if we have a brokered convention?  Is Romney their stalking horse for Jeb?  Don't get me wrong as I like Jeb but having him come out of the convention as the consensus candidate is as likely to happen as a colony on the moon that becomes the 51st state.  Cannot believe anyone would even float the idea of Jeb.  The establishment types led by Bush 41 will NEVER understand conservatives from the looks of it.  The comments at the bottom of the Hot Air article about Jeb Bush being a consensus candidate are not very nice for the most part.