"A wise and frugal government which shall restrain men
from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned. This is the sum of good government."
(Thomas Jefferson)

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Senate Democrats Standing for Reelection or Retiring in 2012

Will the Tea Party Leaders finally wake up and realize who is the enemy here and target the Senate Democrats who are up for reelection instead of incumbent Republicans?  This is their opportunity to step up to the plate to go after the obstructionists Democrats who want to keep spending and still have not presented a budget in over two years.  Below is the list the of Senate Democrats who are running for reelection or are retiring.

Current Senate Democrats who are retiring as of today:
Akaka (HI), Conrad (ND), Bingaman (NM, Webb (VA), and Kohl (WI)
Would bet that Webb was not all that comfortable with some of his votes and his not about to face former Senator George Allen in the 2012 election.  Senator Allen only lost by around 5,000 votes to Webb the last time so I would rate VA as good chance for a pick-up.  Conrad retiring from Red State North Dakota should be a sure pick-up.  New Mexico and Wisconsin will depend on who runs.  Forget Hawaii -- wouldn't waste NRSC money there except very limited.

Now for the current incumbents who are running -- have to ask myself why a few of them are running starting with Ben Nelson of Nebraska:
Feinstein (CA):  Don't waste the money there -- better to spend money in CA trying to split it into two states -- has more of a chance of success then beating Feinstein 
Carper (DE):  Republicans had a chance to pick up a Senate seat in DE with Biden becoming VP but nominated O'Donnell and blew that chance.  Can Republicans get their act together and take out Carper who is now running for a full six years?   
Nelson (FL):  Florida is turning back red in 2012 for President so will that be enough for a Republican to beat Nelson?  We think it is and money should flow into the GOP candidate's coffers to take on Nelson. 
Cardin (MD):  Wouldn't waste money in Maryland -- tried it before and it has not worked. 
Stabenow (MI):  This could be a pick-up for Republicans as former Congressman Hoekstra is running for Senate along with some other good candidates.  Michigan elected a Republican Governor Rick Snyder so they could keep the trend going. 
Klobuchar (MN):  She has a Democrat opponent so this will be a wait and see after the primary. 
McCaskell (MO):  She has a Democrat opponent.  Believe this will be a pick-up by Repubicans as her record does not match the voters of Missouri. 
Tester (MT):  We have a hard time believing that Montana has two Democrat Senators and expect Tester to have a hard time winning in 2012. 
Nelson (NE):  Shocked he is not retiring as Nebraska is a very Red State.  Before Obama took office, you could count on Nelson voting a lot with Republicans.  Now he is an almost a solid  Democrat vote.  Expect a Republican pick-up. 
Bob Menendez (NJ):  Couldn't believe he won the last time but with Christie as Governor would list this as a toss-up or leaning Dem depending on the Republican opponent. 
Gillibrand (NY):  Running for a full six years and wouldn't waste time or money in NY. 
Brown (OH):  Shocked when he won in 2006 and expect him to be sent to the unemployment line in 2012. 
Casey (PA):  Not sure he can be beat but wouldn't rule it out depending on who comes out of the Republican primary. 
Whitehouse (RI):  Wouldn't spend much money here unless there is a turnaround in real polling by people who know RI. 
Cantwell (WA):  Don't waste money in Washington. 
Manchin (WV):  Running for a full six years -- with a good Republican candidate, think there is a possibility to beat him as he has been voting like Obama/Reid want for the most part.  Can the WV Coal Country count on him?  We don't think so.
There you have the Senate Democrats who are running along with my analysis as of today on how I think the races could shake out next year. Right now I would list North Dakota and Virginia open seats along with Nebraska, Missouri, and Ohio as definite pick-ups for the GOP.  Depending on the polling, you could see Ben Nelson of Nebraska decide to retire.  Those five seats would give us a Republican majority in the Senate.  Also believe there are other seats that are good candidates for pick-up as well starting with Florida.

The people running for the Senate as Democrats, incumbents and new candidates, are the ones we want to be concentrating on for defeat in 2012.  Time the Republican Senate took a strong stand on supporting their incumbents and going full force against the Democrats.

Time to 'Take Back the Senate' in 2012 and stop the juvenile behavior we are seeing out of Reid and their Leadership as they bow to Obama's wishes.

Believe Republicans will defend all their seats including the open seat in Texas.

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