California Senate race a dead heat in GOP poll

Reading this article made me think if I was a betting person that I would be putting my money on Fiorina right now. First of all, would take a Tarrance group poll over Public Policy every time. Public Policy polls over time have tended to favor Democrats in races by oversampling Democrats and Independents in certain zip codes.

Speaking of oversampling, we we were trying to figure out why some polls were tightening when you don't see it on the ground. The proof is in the numbers as was pointed out in PA, the number of Democrats stayed the same and they decreased the number of Republicans polled. You want a close race, that will do it.

If someone is looking at one excellent source for polling it would be the Tarrance Group because they do a lot of internal polling and those polls have to be accurate. Other polling companies tighten races and throw them into toss-up a couple of weeks before the election and then give better numbers right before election day. It has happened too many years not to see a trend.

It is bad when an incumbent cannot reach 50% especially one who has been there forever. Boxer is in real trouble in this race this year.  She would have been before if there had been a good opponent. Boxer is extremely arrogant and not sure knows Southern California even exists except for fundraisers in the Hollywood community. Boxer and Murray are not the brightest bulbs in the pack during committee hearings with some of their questions. Barbara, call me Senator, Boxer sitting on Armed Services makes us cringe.

The key in California is turnout which means Republicans have to turn out in the huge numbers they did in the primary and increase them along with pulling in independents and those disgruntled Democrats who have wanted Boxer gone for years.

After November 2nd, CA GOP needs reorganized and put people in party offices who know how to run elections. Arnold will be gone so it is time to rebuild the Republican Party into the viable party it used to be in California. A lot of activists have been waiting for Arnold to retire as his last few years have been a huge disappointment as he has gone farther left in a lot of areas. Now will be the time for the grassroots to get Republicans on the right track.

Having Fiorina as the US Senator and Meg Whitman as the Governor will go a long way in making the Republicans viable in California once again.

California Senate race a dead heat in GOP poll Thursday, October 21, 2010 @ 08:10 AM
CA Polling Memo

In case you missed it, the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza previewed an NRSC internal poll this morning showing the California Senate race is a dead heat just 12 days from Election Day. As Cillizza notes, "Boxer and former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina (R) are knotted at 44 percent in a Tarrance Group poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee by Dave Sackett between Oct. 17 and 19."

From the Morning Fix:

For months, Senate Republicans have insisted that Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) can be beaten. Now, they have a poll that shows the race as a dead heat.

Boxer and former Hewlett Packard executive Carly Fiorina (R) are knotted at 44 percent in a Tarrance Group poll conducted for the National Republican Senatorial Committee by Dave Sackett between Oct. 17 and 19.

Among independents and those voters who decline to state a party preference -- a major target for both candidates --- Fiorina leads 47 percent to 34 percent. "[Fiorina] needs to improve upon this and get her ballot strength among ticket-splitters up into the mid 50's," writes Sackett in the polling memo, a copy of which was obtained by the Fix.

The NRSC poll is slightly more optimistic for Fiorina than a Public Policy Institute of California survey released Wednesday that shows Boxer leading 43 percent to 38 percent. The PPIC survey also shows the race for independents tighter; Fiorina takes 37 percent, Boxer takes 36 percent and 18 percent are undecided.

A look at the Real Clear Politics polling average in the race, however, suggests that California is a genuine tossup as Boxer holds a narrow one-point edge.

Republicans, buoyed by their new numbers, insist that despite the state's clear Democratic lean -- the last Republican to win a Senate race in the Golden State was Pete Wilson back in 1988 -- they are in the game thanks to Boxer's lingering unpopularity and a national breeze blowing in their direction.

One Democratic strategist who has worked in California politics expressed a level of pessimism about the race. "I gotta think that even in CA, a liberal career politician is a tough place to be in a change year," said the source who was granted anonymity to give a candid assessment of the race.

Publicly, Democrats express considerable confidence, noting that while the race has tightened somewhat -- thanks to considerable spending by Fiorina -- Boxer enters the final days of the campaign with a three-to-one cash-on-hand edge. Barring Fiorina writing a huge check, they argue, it will be impossible to match Boxer's spending over the final 12 days.

California -- due to its sheer size -- always draws the eyes of the nation to it. Political junkies would do well to keep their gaze glued to the state's Senate race over the final 12 days of the 2010 campaign.

NRSC Poll